Course C: Managing opportunity and risk in new ways

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Why uncertainty and complexity are crucial

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Course vision

Project risk management has been evolving rapidly. It is now being reframed in important ways, with widespread repercussions for everyone involved. For example:

  • A threat focus has become an ‘opportunity’ focus, with a view to taking more risk to improve expected profit and value opportunities.
  • Multiple pass process emphasis has led to the development of simple ‘minimum clarity’ first pass approaches to size uncertainty prior to deciding whether or not further clarity is needed.
  • Adding complexity to the analysis is now facilitated by a clear understanding of ‘high clarity’ approaches.
  • Building proactive uncertainty management into capital investment appraisal, bidding and contract design is increasingly seen as fundamental.

Capitalising on the experience of course participants and sharing experience will be an important aspect of group sessions. Group sessions will also allow participants to confront difficult practical issues.

Plenary sessions will draw on a highly regarded 2011 book which the course instructor co-authored – “How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk – Why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management”, with copies of this book provided for course participants. 

Training methods
Capitalising on the experience of course participants and sharing experience will be an important aspect of group sessions. Group sessions will also allow participants to confront difficult practical issues. Plenary sessions will draw on the re-titled and extensively re-written third edition of a highly regarded book which the course instructor co-authored – “How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk – Why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management”. Copies of this book will be provided for course participants. 

Training objectives
As a participant you will learn to:

  1. Understand how to avoid being simplistic,
    introducing complexity whenever this is worthwhile,
    avoiding framing assumptions which are restrictive.
    Obtaining unbiased estimates is one useful example context
  2. Persuade colleagues to abandon widely used counter-productive concepts and tools.
    One example is the risk management (probability-impact) matrix.
  3. Sell uncertainty management in terms of the benefits
    which can be provided by the new perspectives.
  4. Embed the new processes and concepts in an organisation,
    avoiding the problems.

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Faculty:

Chris Chapman

Emeritus Professor
of Management Science
in the School of Management
of the University of Southampton and
Senior Associate
of The Nichols Group,
United Kingdom


Guest speaker:

ea-Jesper-SchreinerJesper Garde Schreiner

Senior Consultant,
Fangel Consulting, Denmark


 

How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk

This book is part of the course material